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Box Office Thread 2013
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3rd Fri
$10,537,094 TS3
$10,453,720 Shrek 2
$7,500,000 DM2
$7,356,068 Shrek 3
$7,202,013 MU

Shrek 3 did strong Sat-Sun, over $20M which it's unlikely DM2 will match. Still, it's closer to matching Shrek 3's left over pace than the other two biggies.

Poor opening for Red 2 at just over $6M, while RIPD was down under $5M. Red 1 opened at $7.3M. It was in October. This one probably would have been better off either in October, or in Late Summer in say the middle of August when most of the biggies were all done. August 23 looks like the perfect summer spot for it: nothing of note that, then it's second weekend would be Labor Day weekend for a good second weekend.

Some of the release dates this summer have been pretty stupid. Turbo is another one that should have created more daylight between it and DM2.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

'The Lone Ranger' to Cost Disney $160-$190M in Q4

Here's the transcript of the call:

The Walt Disney's CEO Discusses F3Q 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Quote:
At the studio we released two films in the third quarter Iron Man 3 and Monsters University both of which performed exceptionally well at the box office. Iron Man 3 generated $1.2 billion in global box office revenue however it faced a difficult comparison with the Avengers which generated $1.5 billion in global box office last year and this is the third highest grossing film of all time.

Monsters University box office performance compared favorably to that of Brave last year, however operating income at the studio declined year-over-year. This decline was due to pre-released marketing expenses for the Lone Ranger and the aforementioned Avengers, Iron Man theatrical comparison. The Avengers also had a strong DVD sales in Q4 last year so the DVD release of Iron Man 3 in Q4 this year faces a difficult comparison which we expect to result in a headwind to the studios Q4 results of about $45 million.

Needless to say we’re disappointed with the performance of the Lone Ranger and in light of the film’s box office results we expect to incur loss on the film in Q4 of between $160 million and $190 million. Consumer’s products growth and operating income resulted from increases in merchandise licensing and retail. The increase in licensing was primarily due to the inclusion of Star Wars in this quarter’s results. Also earned licensing revenue was up 3% versus last year and that growth is on a comparable basis which excludes any revenue from the newly acquired Star Wars property. The performance of our retail business was driven by higher comp store sales in North America and Japan and higher online sales in North America.


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Summer's winding down and here's the 2013 box office chart from Mojo.

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2013&p=.htm

Iron Man 3 wins the summer box office crown and Despicable Me 2 was a strong second. Not sure how the studios will react to the Man of Steel number, though.

Pixar rolls in $250 million-plus for Monsters U and Fast and Furious 6 did very well. Oz and the new Star Trek are the others that clocked in past $200 million.

Two films to watch in November: Thor 2 (likely $200 million) and Hunger Games 2 (could be $300 million given the buzz the first flick got).

Then we get the next Hobbit flick in December.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

World War Z cost 190 mil to make, and before the Lone Ranger, it was the pick to be the bomb of the summer. The studio, before it was released, claimed that just breaking even would be a huge victory for Brad Pitt. Well it's now at 503 mil world wide. So guys, like me, who think Pitt is the biggest movie star, have an argument.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 18, 2013 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kick Ass 2 bombed. Front loaded into a poor Friday, it dropped to 5th place by Saturday and Sunday. It is extremely low budget at allegedly $28M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
World War Z cost 190 mil to make, and before the Lone Ranger, it was the pick to be the bomb of the summer. The studio, before it was released, claimed that just breaking even would be a huge victory for Brad Pitt. Well it's now at 503 mil world wide. So guys, like me, who think Pitt is the biggest movie star, have an argument.--Yohe


The biggest movie star in the world doesn't have a recent box office track record that looks like this:

http://boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=bradpitt.htm
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 18, 2013 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KICK ASS 2 stunk as a movie. They forgot what made the first film a hit. I was really unhappy with the new film. So I'm happy if it does bomb.

Yeah Pitt needed a hit of some type.

Did you ever watch the Jessie James film?

Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The summer is going out with a massive whimper. I guess Millers getting to $100M is something, and maybe Butler has some legs and gets close.

Wolverine is up to $123M, but it's losing every week to X-First Class, which isn't a good sign since this has the Big Guy of the X-verse. It's not getting to $140M and has to be a disappointment... though Mojo had it at $125M in its summer forecast.

The Conjuring is over $130M, which is a big hit in that genre and a cheapo budget.

Grown Ups 2 is closing in on $130M. Pacific Rim is almost at $100M, though it's a bomb in the US given it's costs... but world wide is closing in on $400M.

Really, the last big hit to launch was DM2. On some level, that one over performed as it's closing in on $350M, while the summer after it under performed with not only no $200M movies but also none that got to even $150M.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:11 pm    Post subject: Pitt at the boxoffice Reply with quote

Looking closer, I don't think Brad Pitt has anything to worry about.--Yohe

WORLD WAR Z (2013)—Made 517 mil & everyone thought it was going to be a huge baom. Big plus for Pitt.

KILLING HIM SOFTLY (2012)—An art film that had no chance to make money. Pitt was very good in it.

MONETBALL (2011)—Cost 50 mil & made 110 mil. Kind of broke even. Very hard movie to make & everything worked. Pitt got nominated for A.A.

THE TREE OF LIFE (2011)—Art film for Malck. Never had a chance to make money. It is a great movie.

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (2009)—Cost 70 mil –made 321 mil. Big Tarantino hit.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (2008)—Cost 150 mil—Made 333 mil. Big hit. Very hard to make high minded SF film. I think Pitt got nominated for AA.

BURN AFTER READING (2008)-Cost 37 mil—Made 163 mil. Bit part in Coen brother film.

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES (2007)—Great performance in a art film that is maybe the best pure western of our period. Major bomb but Pitt thinks it’s his best film.

OCEAN”S THIRTEEN (2007)—Made 311 mil. A star thing.

BABEL (2006)—An art film that made 135 mil.

MR & MRS SMITH (2005)—Cost 110 mil and made 362 mil. This was Pitt’s movie and it was a hit. He also fucked the leading lady.

OCEAN”S TWELVE (2004)—Cost 110 mil and made 362 mil. Pitt got to have fun with the guys.

TROY (2004) Cost 175 mil & made 497 mil in 2004. Big hit. We dumped on it at the time but today I like it a lot. Pitt had a hard part & made it work.

OCEAN”S II—Big hit with the boys. I think Pitt stolid the movie.

SPY GAME Supported Redford. Came after 9/11 & got hurt by it. I like it.

THE MEXICAN--Supported J. Roberts Cost 57 mil made 147 mil.

SNATCH—Made 83 mil. An English art film.

FIGHT CLUB—Cost 63 mil & made 100 mil. Really over rated but the computer generation loves it. Fincher film.

MEET JOE BLACK—Huge bomb but a good project that didn't work for people. Long time ago.

SEVEN YEARS IN TIBET—Huge bomb and Pit’s worst film….and he says that.

THE DEVIL”S OWN—Supported Harrison Ford and worked for Pakula. Made 140 mil.

SEVEN—Cost 33 mil and made 322 mil. A Fincher film that was a huge hit for everyone.

LEGENDS OF THE FALL—Big hit.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:12 pm    Post subject: Pitt at the boxoffice Reply with quote

This is an attemp to correct a double post. The tOA site is a mess these days.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo did their Summer Winners & Losers piece:

Summer 2013: Winners & Losers

The Losers and Toss Ups are on a second page, so don't miss the link at the bottom.

I think he's fair with everything. The ones in his Toss-Ups section aren't bombs, and maee money. They just happened to have higher expectations or predecessors that did better, or in the case of World War Z a massive budget that cuts into it being a massive success even with the strong box office.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gravity = Big. $122M after its second weekend. I'm with Mojo that it's a $200M movie, and probably $250M. I'm not fully sold at $300M yet given the following thing:

* lot of drama coming out

Already have Captain Phillips. Gravity got great word of mouth to keep its second weekend up, and Phillps probably will as well. Phillips beat Argo big all three days this weekend even while jobbing to Gravity, and pulled in a higher screen average. There are another of other Adult movies coming out like The Fifth Estate, 12 Years a Slave and The Counselor.

* Inception

It's behind Inception at the moment. That one didn't get to $300M despite great legs, and a summer release.

* Non-Adult audience

That's going to get bled away with other big movies going out.

$250M would be exceptional, and it might top what Thor does if Thor doesn't get a Avengers rub like IM3 did to top it's prior movies by a ton.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gravity continues to kill it at the box office, doing $30M on the weekend, and almost to $175M after Mon-Tue. Big, big, big hit.

I still think Inception is the relevant box office comp to keep an eye on for Gravity's chances at $300M since Inception got to $292.6M:

Inception vs Gravity
WE1: $62,785,337 vs $55,785,112
WE2: $42,725,012 vs $43,188,256
WE3: $27,485,245 vs $30,027,161

Gravity is beating it now on the weekends, but is getting hurt on the weekdays (since Inception had the summer weekdays). So while the weekend number cut Inception's lead to under $24M, the two weekdays pushed that back up close to $27M:

$193,313,741 vs $169,563,291 through weekend
$201,725,628 vs $174,919,886 through Tue

Inception took in $43M in its third full week, and Gravity is going to be around $40M. So it's not really closing that gap yet.

$250M looks like a lock, and probably comfortably above that unless the blockbusters really quick in quick. I don't think Ender's Game will be it, but Thor will be.

* * * * *

Captain Phillips is beating Argo most days, and is right around $10M ahead of its pace. But its % drop has been bigger. I don't think its making Argo's $136M, but $100M is very possible. It's the one at some risk of being impacted by The Counselor this weekend more so than Gravity.

* * * * *

Sly & Arnold bombed in Escape Plan. We're not even talking about $50M potential, though I suspect we'll hear a lot about how much this makes around the world.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woo-hoo~! Mojo finally got around to doing a Gravity vs Inception showdown:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=gravityinception.htm

4th Weekend: $20,135,387 vs $18,505,470

Gravity wins another weekend, but will give the $1,629,917 back during the weekdays. Almost $30M gap heading into the weekend, which will probably be the same come Thursday's numbers. $300M is safely out, but it's going well over $250M which is a massive surprise hit.

Captain Phillips lost the weekend to Argo, but took the weekdays to take last week overall. Still don't think it's getting to $136M, but $100M is a piece of cake now and should fly comfortably above it.

Bad Grandpa is way down from Jackass 3-D, but ahead of Jackass 2 which topped out a shade above $70M. $60M to $75M seems about right, with Mojo thinking $75M.

The Counselor joins the list of bombs, but it had just a $25M budget. Suspect the total costs are more since there were a decent number of advertisements out.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some quickies:

$145,097,130 Thor 2 (-57.3%)
$119,455,352 Thor (-47.2%)

Thor 2 beat it on the weekend, but by just under $2M. Thor 2 is going to top Thor's $181M, and that lead should be enough to get it to get it to $200M... but Hunger Games comes out and is going to soak up a ton of the box office instantly. So $200M might get a little tight if it falls well below that $15M that Thor made on Weekend 3.

Gravity is pretty tight with Inception on the daily battles, but it's $30M back of the pace. Inception had $22M left in the tank at this point, and that sounds about right for Gravity. That would take it up past $260M. Pretty stout.

Captain Phillips has bled back on Argo's pace, but is just under $6M up. It's not going to have the Oscar legs that Argo did, but it's been good enough to have it on the edge of $100M which it should hit by the close of next weekend.

Here is a funny one. Bad Grandpa was $25.7M behind Jackass 3-D at the end of their respective 2nd weeks. Bad Grandpa has now beaten it 7 out of the last 10 days, most importantly all six weekend days and has cut the gap down to $20.7M. JA-3D only had $6.5M left in the tank at this point, but it was bleeding a hell of a lot more each weekend, while GP was still a strong #5 at the box office this weekend with a mild decline. I'm thinking it has a heck of a lot more than $6.5M left in the tank and will get the just over $10M it needs to get to $100M.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 went past $100M a while ago. What's kind of funny is that its budget was $22M under the first one, and this one looks like its box office is going to all comfortably under the money they saved on the budget (it's only $11M behind the total, and less than that of the pace). Not bad.

Ender's Game is fading fast after opening #1. Won't get remotely close to $100M.
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