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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1775
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 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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The '08 Lakers-Celtics Finals averaged 15M, by 2010 it was up to 18M. Now the 12th and 28th largest markets in the country are going to average close to that. Ignoring that growth is idiotic.
How exactly is that growth? Looks more like establishing a baseline to me.
More money for even or less amount of viewers, give David Stern a raise! |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1775
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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| jdw wrote: | | Rian wrote: | | And nope, the NBA doesn't get a 21% increase jdw. The 21% increase back in 2007 also gave Time Warner the rights to run NBATV...not exactly the same thing as just continuing on the same contract with nothing else changing. |
Nope. Both ESPN/ABC and Time Warner increased at a 21% clip. ESPN/ABC went from $400M to $485M per year.
And here's the key: things *are* changing:
2007: Ratings declining at a horrific rate (see Spurs)
2012: Ratings increasing with Disney & TW loving it
If you don't think Time Warner loves NBA, you must have missed the contract they signed with the Lakers.
John |
Local broadcasts are an entirely different animal than national broadcasts. When the Blazers were red hot and rollin', the marketshare for games broadcast on local tv was over 50%, many many many local eyeballs watching that are essentially captive since that was long before the days of DVR's. You also get to control what you want to broadcast (highlight shows, weekly wrap-ups, interviews, off-season stuff, etc) so those are no-brainers.
As for the 21% clip, I think you misinterpreted what I said...it wasn't the past increase that didn't increase at 21% (because it did), it's the next increase that doesn't approach those numbers. The online/NBA League Pass rights will increase because tv's are not where the growth is coming from, especially overseas. |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12603
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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Let's just have a virtual $1 a gentleman's bet:
I say that the next national deals replacing the current Disney and Time Warner ones will increase by more than 21% per year average.
You say that they won't.
Agreed?
John |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1775
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:37 am Post subject: |
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| Done deal Randolph, since I think I relate to Don Ameche's character more. |
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jdw
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Posts: 12603
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:47 am Post subject: |
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I couldn't as easily find a picture of the two old dudes with the $1 bill as with Eddy and Dan. And yeah... I'm an old goat. :P
John |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1376
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:52 am Post subject: |
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I know the bet has been finalized.
But this is where Rian should go look at World Series ratings over the same time period.
Baseball averaged between 30-40M viewers through 1992.
The first year after the strike in 1995, the average viewership was 28M.
Since then the numbers have cratered, bottoming out with Phillies/Rays with 13.65M in 2008 and 14.3M for Giants/Rangers in 2010. Last year with a Game 7, it averaged 16.6M viewers.
Since 2000, 7 of 11 World Series have done under 20M viewers. And that's with a Yankees dynasty and the fantastic post 9/11 2001 Series, Red Sox ending curse, etc.
So in summation, you're going to lose this bet.
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/10/18/guess-the-world-series-tv-viewership-poll-historical-world-series-ratings/107541/
Jagdip |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1775
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Using baseball's cut in half audience is your basis? Baseball is a dying sport, and while basketball is still a very popular sport...we're in football nation. |
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corrado
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2744
Location: LI
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:52 pm Post subject: |
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Onto Game 2 and the series is tied. OKC almost gave the Heat a big scare by making the game close after the Heat dominated most of the game.
One of the big stats here was Lebron being 12-12 from the line including the end FT's. Aside from game 1, he's been coming through for the Heat the past few games. |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1775
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Tough loss for OKC who were in very early foul trouble. Still expect OKC to take 2 out of 3 in Miami. |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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This might give OKC the incentive to stop playing for shit in the 1st Qtr. :)
John |
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Dustin
Joined: 18 Nov 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:02 am Post subject: |
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| jdw wrote: | This might give OKC the incentive to stop playing for shit in the 1st Qtr. :)
John |
It's been since game 4 of the Spurs series that the Thunder have played a good game from start to finish. The shitty first quarter starts finally caught up with them.
Despite OKC's garbage first half and the Heat playing pretty well throughout, the Thunder still had a chance to win or send it to overtime at the end.
(Hey, I'm trying to put a positive spin on this game)
OKC is the better team top to bottom and I think played tougher opponents in the West leading up to this series. I still think they win this series, but they need to start putting together complete games...or else I might have a heartattack at the age of 31. :) |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1376
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:18 am Post subject: |
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Scott Brooks has to figure out the lineup that will work best for him and play it. Wasting 1st quarters with Perkins because he's started all year would be a silly reason to give up the title.
Westy-Harden-Thabo-Durant-Ibaka. Roll that out and try to outscore them like Game 1.
Westy taking a lot of heat, but he'll figure it out. The Heat can't guard him and he'll have a 34-11-7 to win a game by himself in Miami.
LeBron hit the banker and was exceedingly clutch at the line (12-12), so we have to leave him alone for three days, but that 4th quarter wasn't exactly a gem before that.
This is gonna be a helluva series.
Jagdip |
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corrado
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2744
Location: LI
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| Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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I have a question. When Harden fouled Lebron with a minute left. The announcers said that there was a foul to give, and it was a blocking foul, and despite that, Lebron shot 2 FT's. Now was that a mistake? Or was it the Heat with a foul to give. If it was the other way around a very glaring mistake.
But despite that, OKC is showing signs of weakness. Durant in foul trouble. Ibaka absent from the 4th again. If OKC continues this, I dont think there's a chance they'll win the title. |
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Dustin
Joined: 18 Nov 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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| corrado wrote: |
But despite that, OKC is showing signs of weakness. Durant in foul trouble. Ibaka absent from the 4th again. If OKC continues this, I dont think there's a chance they'll win the title. |
OKC is doing some things that I haven't seen them do in the playoffs. Those last several offensive possessions were awful. Up until game 2 of this series, OKC had been clutch in their execution late. Credit the Heat's defense, but some of the errors OKC is making are unforced (throwing the ball away on the inbounds play).
OKC looked like they had some things figured out in the 3rd, building the 10 point lead until KD got his 4th foul. Although I thought the call was horseshit, with contact being minimal and the whistle being late, KD has to be smart enough to avoid that foul call. Get out of the way or put your hands straight up in the air. He was fucked when he left his feet.
After that it looked like the Thunder could never get back into that offensive flow.
Last but not least is the glaring difference in free throw percentage. The Thunder were great free throw shooters coming into this series. In game two and game three OKC has been dreadful, meanwhile Miami's free throw shooting has been the difference. |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12603
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:36 am Post subject: |
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Didn't get a chance to watch much of the game, except the home stretch. Agree with Dustin: OKC was doing things late that they hadn't done in the prior series. It wasn't just the inbounds play, but several other times they threw the ball away. I know OKC had turnover issues in the regular season, but against the Lakers and Spurs they seemed to reel those on.
That was really a game where they should have turned the 10 point lead into 20 and crushed the soul of the Heat. Now they really need to win Game 4 to avoid Game 5 being a close out, and needing to beat the Heat three straight games. I know 6 & 7 will be back in OKC is they were to win Game 5 down 1-3. But winning three straight against the Heat will be hard to pull off.
John |
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