The OtherArena

[DalyCityTrain]

France might benefit long-term from losing to Sweden, since they wind up in the slightly easier side of the bracket. They'll still be underdogs vs. Spain, but from what I've seen and the ZM recaps, Italy and Germany seem like the toughest opponents.

[jdw]

Czech Republic 0-1 Portugal

Ronaldo scores late. Portugal gets the winner of Spain/France. We can only hope it's the Iberian Semifinal to see what Portugal does countering Espana's tiki taka.

02/13/02 Friendly: Spain 1-1 Portugal
09/06/03 Friendly: Portugal 0-3 Spain
06/20/04 Euro 2004 GS: Spain 0-1 Portugal
06/29/10 WC 2010 QF: Spain 1-0 Portugal
11/17/10 Friendly: Portugal 4-0 Spain

ZM's recap of their last competitive meeting:

Spain 1-0 Portugal: Villa eventually finds a way through, Portugal fail to respond

The friendly probably can be tossed out.

John

[jdw]

Blanc Admits to France Locker Room Row (video)

French World Cup Demons Return as Players Row in Sweden Loss

You have to love that this team is still a bunch of pricks. :)

John

[jdw]

Spain through, so we have Spain vs Portugal in one semi, and Germany waiting for England/Italy in the other. This is probably how UEFA Creative would have wanted it booked with one QF left. :)

John

[jdw]

Samir Nasri at heart of arguments as surly France bow out: The Manchester City midfielder has been criticised from all sides and Laurent Blanc is now considering his future as coach

:)

John

[jdw]

Spain starts Alvaro Negredo up front instead of the Cesc/Torres combo. The rest is the Usual Suspects.

John

[jdw]

Half way to Espana vs Italy in the Final: the last two World Champs, though very few folks left from Italy's 2006 World Title. Buffon... :)

[jdw]

Someone pointed this out on one of the liveblogs: Germany has never won against Italty in a WC or EC game:

1962 WC: Italy 0-0 Germany
1970 WC: Italy 4-3 Germany
1978 WC: Italy 0-0 Germany
1982 WC: Italy 3-1 Germany
1988 EC: Italy 1-1 Germany
1996 EC: Italy 0-0 Germany
2006 WC: Italy 2-0 Germany

3-4-0 for Italy.

You also have to love when Italy screws up Futbol Creative's carefully laid plans:

1982 WC: Italy 3-2 Brasil
2006 WC: Italy 1(5)-1(3) France

:)

John

[DalyCityTrain]

Also the fourth straight major tournament (WC & EC) where this talented, exciting and attack-minded German group loses at the SF or Final stage to Italy or Spain (2 losses apiece to each). In none of those 4 games did they particularly deserve to win, but they've been probably the most exciting side to watch in international soccer over the past 6 years.

Ozil is still young and may not be at his peak yet, but this is probably it for Klose and neither Schweinsteiger or Podolski looked as good as they have in the past.

[jdw]

Germany is young. Looking at the starters and their age at the next World Cup:

Manuel Neuer (28)

Jerome Boateng (25)
Mats Hummels (25)
Holger Badstuber (25)
Philipp Lahm (30)

Bastian Schweinsteiger (29)
Sami Khedira (27)

Thomas Muller (24
Mesut Ozil (25)
Lukas Podolski (29)

Mario Gomez (28)

And the bench players who featured (along with Gotze who is the prodigy):

Lars Bender (25)
Toni Kroos (24)
Andre Schurrle (23)
Marco Reus (25)
Mario Gotze (22)
Miroslav Klose (35)

The only real age on the team is Klose. Lahm is the only other one who will hit 30, and he'll just hit it.

Podolski did not look good, and Low probably should have yanked him earlier. The thing is... 44 goals for Germany, a lot of them in tourneys:

3 - 2005 Confed Cup
3 - 2006 World Cup
3 - 2008 Euro Cup
2 - 2010 World Cup

11 is the same number that Klose scored in those tourneys. So Low may have some affinity for Lukas "when things are going well". But he really should have been yanked here.

I'm willing to cut Schweinsteiger some slack since he's playing on an ankle with torn ligaments (from back in Feb) that never fully healed. He came back for Munchen's stretch run in Germany (League & Cup runner up) and Champions League run and Germany's run in the Euro. While he wasn't up to his usual standards, *early* in the tourney he wasn't that bad... to the point that you have a little faith that fully fit in 2014 he'll be fine.

That said, I really think in a tourney like this you if you're playing the double pivot in MF, you kind of need to come in with 3 players for those 2 spots, and look to get them playing time. I know that Low is taking a lot of legit grief for juggling the attacking 4 positions where he has boatloads of talent. But in the double pivot, you've got two guys running all over the place every 4th day. If you've got three guys there, you not only can rotate them in group, but also have coverage for injuries and cards. If the players know they have a clearly defined role where each starts 2 out of the 3 group games, and then you work them around form / cards / injuries / opponent-driven-needs after that, I think the players would be accepting of it. Granted... if you have a Xavi or Pirlo as part of that, it's a harder decision to make... but if you happen to get the buy in of a Xavi, you're likely to get the buy in of lesser players.

Anyway...

I cut Schweinsteiger some slack.

Podolski is likely done unless he hits great form for Gunners in the next two years. There's just too much attacking talent, and he's holding some of it back. They're locked into Ozil, though he is a player who presents clear problems for Germany:

* he has defensive & stamina issues

He can't sustain pressure & tracking opponents players.

* he has positional issues

He's really is best in the center, and tends to drift in when playing on the left, which destroys any width down that side.

* Not a scorer

He's a great creator / distributor, but he's not putting the ball in the net. I very briefly brainstormed letting him play False 9 at the top of the German 4-2-3-1 since Germany has other players who can play in the hole behind him (like Gotze, Reus and Kroos) and it would free Ozil of defensive burdens that he's not good at. Germany also is lacking in a #9 to replace Klose, as Gomez is pretty spotty in terms of reliability. The problem is... Ozil just doesn't put the ball in the net enough. Nor could you see him being of a lot of use on say Muller's good crosses into the middle: Ozil isn't a target man. :)

I could almost picture him being a Jr. Messi with the skills and vision and movement... but would he score enough? Also, it's not likely he'd play that role for Madrid, so the only time he'd get practice and match time would be with Germany. That usually isn't good.

So...

I wonder if as good as Ozil is, he might not end up being a bit like the old Lamps/Gerrard issue with England: these two don't fit together. Ozil can fit with most anyone, but... he has limitations that have to be factored in. Italy took advantage of those, even as Low tried to deal with them himself (moving Ozil off of Pirlo Tracking duty).

They're young. They have LOADS of young talent to fill the 3 in a 4-2-3-1. Perhaps some that can be added to the mix at 2 (Bender for example). Lack a #9 at the top, and there may issues getting that great talent at the attacking 3 to fit together... or at least defensively fit together.

John

[jdw]

Michael Cox's early preview in the Guardian. He'll probably put up the ZM one on Saturday.

Euro 2012: The Pirlo conundrum that could be the key to the final

[DalyCityTrain]

Good stuff on Germany. I didn't know about Schweinsteiger's injury. I was thinking in a broad sense there would be pressure for Germany to return to a less open style (and bring in a different set of coaches) because 16 years is a long time without a major title for them.

Interesting thoughts about Gotze and Ozil, and needing to go one way or the other. I can't see a German side ever being as foolish as England was with Lampard and Gerrard, or hopefully like Argentina in the early 00s when Veron, Aimar and Riquelme seemed like different factions who could never co-exist in the same team.

But perhaps I'm jumping the gun and they can reload for 2014 without a change in philosphy. I would definitely prefer that, as no other European squad is nearly as fun to watch on a game-by-game basis right now.

[jdw]

Totally agree.

I think Germany between now and 2014 just needs to find that balance between "flair" and "pragmatic" that Brasil found in the 2002 World Cup. Not in the sense of matching their style of play / tactics, but in a grasp of the talent they had and how to get the most out of it with a smart tactical approach. That Brasil team isn't exactly loved in Brasil like the 1970 or 1982 teams, but was very effective.

I think this forces Low back to the drawing board. We're both on the same page that we hope he doesn't get locked into the Lamps/Gerrard mindset of England, which also had the side effective of (i) playing Scholes out of position then (ii) driving Scholes into retirement, which kind of screwed the pooch on the player they should have been building around rather than Lamps/Gerrard/Becks. :)

I love Ozil. It's possible Jose will help him develop, though it's looking a bit more like Jose is being smart in surrounding Ozil and Ronaldo with players who cover up what they lack and support what they're great at.

[jdw]

That was a good and fitting end to the Euro. Spain plays their best game against the best team they played. The final Italian injury took what drama was left in it away, but one got the sense that with the likely Perdo + Torres subbing for Silva + Cesc that Spain would open up even an 11 man Italy for another goal if they Italy pulled one back. I still wonder how much more Spain would have dominated the tourney if they started Pedro in the place of Silva in each game.

Olympics start on 7/26. :)

[Scott]

Spain's provisional 22-man list to be cut to 18 for the Olympics:

GKs: De Gea (Manchester United), Joel (Atlético) y Diego Mariño (Villarreal)

Defenders: San José (Athletic), Jordi Alba y Montoya (Barcelona), Domínguez (Borussia Monchëngladbach), Azpilicueta (Marsella), Íñigo Martínez (Real Sociedad) y Botía (Sporting).

Midfielders: Javi Martínez, Ander Herrera e Iker Muniain (Athletic), Koke (Atlético), Thiago (Barcelona), Oriol Romeu y Mata (Chelsea) e Isco (Málaga).

Forwards: Adrián (Atlético), Tello (Barcelona), Rodrigo (Benfica) y Álvaro Vázquez (Espanyol).