The OtherArena

[jdw]

The beauty of being a pro football player with a $60M contract of which $40M to $50M is guaranteed (like Bradford) is that you can go back to get your degree. Nice, big off seasons. Lots of money. It's not quite like basketball which is a longer, sprawling season (especially if you go a few series into the post season).

$20M with $5M guaranteed is still nice money. But it isn't even $5M guaranteed if his stock starts dropping and he gets exposed like Locker. Or how about the ND guy who looked like a sure thing Top 10 draft pick and now isn't even the "QB Of The Future" of a horrible Carolina franchise. In fact, the same thing has happened to the last two ND QB's: they've failed in the NFL to the point that even bad teams won't give them a flyer.

Luck is crackers. :)

John

[Bob Morris]

Bradford didn't get affected by staying for another year, despite his shoulder injury and every other factor. And now the guy is a lock to be NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

If Luck truly is comparable to guys like Peyton Manning, then it won't matter if Luck comes out this year or next year. He'll get drafted high and get big money.

I think most of the QBs who opted to stay their senior years, and then didn't do so well that year, likely knew they weren't ready for the NFL despite what pundits said... but in their cases, they probably figured it was better to get more experience and stand a better chance of getting paid over the long term, rather than going the JeMarcus Russell route of getting all this guaranteed money, then getting cut two or three years later and not knowing what the hell to do with yourself.

Luck is no fool. He knows with the CBA dilemna that, whether it's solved or not, there's a rookie salary cap coming so there's less incentive to cash in. Even if he gets less money by staying at Stanford another year, he could always go the route of guys like Drew Brees and Tom Brady, who didn't get a lot of money right off the bat, but then proved over time how good they were and got far, far more money than guys like Russell ever will.

In other words, Luck isn't crackers. He just beleives it's a better way of getting more than four years of NFL money. :)

[Scott]

Oklahoma WR Ryan Broyles is apparently also crackers, as he is returning for his senior season. :P

Oklahoma LB Travis Lewis is also returning for his senior season.


Scott

[Rian]

Locker wasn't exposed, he's much better suited as a FB or a LB in the NFL. Not having a big arm will hurt him in the long run.

[Bob Morris]

And just to really drive John nuts... ;)

History lesson: The 1998 draft saw two quarterbacks taken with the first two picks.

The first guy taken actually completed his degree in three years and was projected to be the top overall pick of the 1997 NFL draft, but decided to return for his senior year.

The second guy taken decided to forego his senior year and he got a $31.25 million, four-year contract with an $11.25 million signing bonus.

We all know who those two are: Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

We all know how they turned out, don't we?

Manning turned his lucrative rookie contract into even more lucrative contracts over the remainder of his career.

Leaf fizzled out, blew through his money and is now trying to make cash off a book deal.

Who's crackers now? :)

[jdw]

We could also toss out the last USC QB to win a Heisman. How did that turn out, when SanFran wanted him really badly with the #1 pick. Instead, he went back to school. The 49ers picked another QB, who got a $49.5 million deal with $24 million guaranteed.

When USC Boy came out, he dropped in the draft, got a "$50.8 million" contract but just $14 million guaranteed.

If you make it, that doesn't really matter. But it's not like either of those QB have really made it: neither could win/hold down starting job on shitty teams. One got released, and the other is on his last ropes.

Personally, I'd take the extra $10M in guaranteed money and get my degree later. Again, it's not hard.

I actually think Ryan Leaf made the right move, and frankly ended up at the right team. He just was a fuck up, and blew it. But what if that fuck up personality happened in his senior year? A few DUI's, or had a date-rape issue, or something. He would have dropped like a rock in the draft.

Manning was a once in a generation prospect, not just coming into the NFL but also going into college. Luck never had that rep until people started wetting themselves after the bowl game. He was a top prospect coming out of high school, but not even #1 like Barkley. If he was the shit, he wouldn't have gone to Stanford (5-19 the prior two years), nor redshirted as a freshman for a team that wasn't any good.

I like the kid, think he could be really good, and wish the best for him. But I'm not sure how much of it was his coach who is one of the best in college, and how much of it his him. If it's not him, I'd take the money.

The other key thing on why he's crazy:

2011 Draft Money for #1: $78M-86M / $50M guaranteed (Bradford money)
2012 Draft Money for #1: $20M / $5M guaranteed (new cap)

That's the type of money being talked about. There really isn't any reason he wouldn't get Bradford money: the bandwagon is stronger at the moment, he's healthy, and there's a team even more desperate for a savior in Carolina.

The numbers people are tossing around for the rookie cap drop that guarantee by $45M. We all know that the Vets will sell out the rookies for other bones. And we also know that the owners if they feel pressure to settle will look at that as a major gain from the contract: getting young talent cheap, lowering the risk and expenses of those young players, and the exposure to flops and injuries.

Manning would have come out this year rather than risk the cap. There's no way in hell his old man wouldn't have advised him to take the extra $45M guaranteed, and $60M overall, while his degree would be there in the future.

He's crackers. $45M+ in crackers. :)

John

[Scott]

There is serious talk that the "new cap" you speak of will be in effect for this year's draft. If that comes to pass, then Luck actually hasn't lost all that much, if anything. Also, it's starting to look more and more like Harbaugh is going to stay at Stanford at least one more year. Miami is staying with Sparano, and the Denver talks apparently haven't gotten anywhere.

It may not be all that bad a play. And that's assuming that Luck is staying for financial/NFL reasons and not for more personal reasons.


Scott

[Bob Morris]

Scott is correct. If a new CBA is reached during the 2011 offseason, the rookie salary cap will likely take effect THIS year. Particularly if, by some stroke of luck, the new CBA is completed before the current one expires in March.

The rookie salary cap is coming. The owners and players union both want it. It's other issues that the owners and union are bickering about.

Luck wasn't going to get a Bradford-type deal in 2011. There's no short-term gain involved.

He's not crackers to stay another year. If he's really the next Manning, he'll be fine.

[Iron Chad]

This is another masterpiece from LSUFreek regarding the Michigan coaching search.

Michigan Coaching Chat

[jdw]

Pitt hired Todd Graham when no one was looking

Miles to Michigan talk continues. That would be fun. :)

John

[jdw]

Flirtation over: Miles to remain at LSU

Damn! :)

UM is a total trainwreck at the moment.

John

[Rian]

Brady Hoke is Michigan's guy, they keep trying to swing for the fences but he's worked at Michigan in the past and is a known commodity.

[Rian]

And Brady is in at Michigan. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=6012465

[Dustin]

[jdw]

I think the high point was last night. This is sadly a sense of what's to come:

Despite contrary reports, Cecil Newton was at BCS title game

If Rev Newton got money, I think this is just more proof that he is too dumb to have covered all the tracks. Nor probably cares. :/

John