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The OtherArena
"I think we probably all feel some solidarity as partners in the War on Bullshit." -Nate Silver
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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 Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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Durant sonned LeBron in the fourth.
All Miami has to do now is beat them 4 times in 6 games.
Jagdip |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12683
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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Thunder are a helluva team. I was less surprised that Hardin stayed on the bench then over Collison staying in over say Ibaka.
KD is the new Tim Duncan: the mega superstar of the era that you would most want to play with.
John |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:54 am Post subject: |
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Thunder also have Mini Kobe in Westbrook.
Just like 2000-04 Kobe, Westy has to suppress his game for the greater good. But for how long?
Jagdip |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:58 am Post subject: |
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Better than even I thought, per sportsmediawatch:
The much-hyped 2012 NBA Finals got off to the best start in a decade.
Game 1 of the Heat/Thunder NBA Finals drew an 11.8 overnight rating on ABC Tuesday night, up 10% from Mavericks/Heat Game 1 last year (10.7), and up 14% from Celtics/Lakers Game 1 on a Thursday night in 2010 (10.4).
The 11.8 overnight is the highest for Game 1 of the NBA Finals since Nets/Lakers Game 1 on NBC in 2002 (13.0). The previous high for a Game 1 on ABC was an 11.6 for Pistons/Lakers in 2004.
This marks the highest overnight for a Game 1 of the NBA Finals that did not involve the Lakers since Bulls/Jazz Game 1 in 1998 (18.8).
Overall, Game 1 drew the eighth-highest overnight for a non-clinching NBA Finals game on ABC since the network resumed airing games in the 2002-03 season.
Dating back to 2000, final ratings for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have declined between 12% and 21% from the overnight, putting Tuesday’s game on pace to finish in the 9.3-10.4 range. Currently, the highest final rating for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on ABC is a 9.8 for Pistons/Lakers in ’04.
Locally, Game 1 drew a 30.5 rating in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, down 4% from Game 1 last year (31.9).
In Oklahoma City, the game drew a 44.4 rating, the highest ever for an NBA game in the market. For some perspective, SuperSonics/Bulls Game 1 in 1996 drew a 39.6 rating in Seattle. |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1840
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:19 am Post subject: |
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| lol, 9.3 compared to 18.8? Surprised the OKC # isn't higher than 44.4, Blazer games back in the late 80's/early 90's were over 50%. |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:27 am Post subject: |
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Can Rian read?
;)
11.8 not 9.3.
White people LOVED Michael Jordan. Gonna take some time before they love another *ahem* NBA player that much again.
Jagdip |
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corrado
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2779
Location: LI
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:28 am Post subject: |
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So basically like the NFL, a lockout earlier in the year doesnt have a profound effect on ratings for the playoffs. You can also sense throughout the season that having a very ugly lockout wouldnt hamper peoples viewing habits. The Linsanity story. Every combination of Heat/Bulls/Celtics/Lakers/Thunder/Knicks.
NBA lucked out with a great postseason, lots of good matchups (Knicks/Heat, Celtics/Heat, Spurs/Clippers, Thunder/Lakers, Thunder/Spurs.) and this "dream" Finals. |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12683
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:05 am Post subject: |
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NBA National TV Contracts (Total Annual Value):
$219M - 1991-94
$276M - 1995-98
$660M - 1999-02
$767M - 2003-08 (signed Jan 2002)
$930M - 2009-16 (06/27/07)
The $219M was massive up over the prior ones, but I started there because it was the point at which the NBA lined up negotiating their network and cable deals at the same time.
Contracts boomed up in the 80s and 90s due to the Magic/Bird/Jordan era, the last major leap up being the 1999-2002 contract before it was clear that MJ was retiring. The big jump there was also due to the NBA finally being able to strong arm the Superstations about their carriage of games.
Points?
The NBA was able to get a $100M+ a year increase in January 2002 after the Jordan era was over, ratings were down off their peak (despite the Lakers three-peat), and the country was in a major recession where people were (yet again) talking about the bubble being out of Sports TV Rights Fees.
Zoom forward to 06/27/07 when the last NBA contracts were finalized. That month sounds familiar... I'm trying to remember what happened that month... wait, Jag posted something useful earlier:
That's right: Worst Rated Final In The Past 35 Years!
And David Stern, freaking genuis that he is, was able to get a $163M per year increase in fees (21%) at the time of the Worst NBA Ratings Ever!
Since then? Thanks to the Lakers (2008-10) and the Lebrons (2011-2012), the Finals ratings have rebounded to their relative best since the Jordan Era: since ratings in general for all tv are down so much, the 2008-2011 ratings are actually more valuable to the carriers than the ratings in 1999-2002 & 2004 (setting aside the monster bomb the Spurs laid in 2003). That's just the Finals: regular season game numbers are up as well since the last contract was signed.
I know you want to be contrarian Rian (or simply drive Jag nuts for fun), but you honestly don't think the NBA is going to get less money per year on their next contract, right? You don't really think that they're not going to get at least that same 21% increase that they got last time (which would take the contract up to over $1.1B per year)?
Jag and I think the increase will likely be more than that 21%, but 2015-16 is a little ways off so there is chance for disaster (like Lebron dying or something like that).
John |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1840
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:12 am Post subject: |
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| JAG wrote: | Can Rian read?
;)
11.8 not 9.3.
White people LOVED Michael Jordan. Gonna take some time before they love another *ahem* NBA player that much again.
Jagdip |
It's obvious JAG can't read what he copied and pasted.
"Dating back to 2000, final ratings for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have declined between 12% and 21% from the overnight, putting Tuesday’s game on pace to finish in the 9.3-10.4 range. Currently, the highest final rating for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on ABC is a 9.8 for Pistons/Lakers in ’04. "
Como te llamos? |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1840
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:17 am Post subject: |
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And nope, the NBA doesn't get a 21% increase jdw. The 21% increase back in 2007 also gave Time Warner the rights to run NBATV...not exactly the same thing as just continuing on the same contract with nothing else changing.
If Comcast wants to "overbid" for the NBA, ESPN/ABC isn't going to get into a bidding war, and with TNT/TBS on basic cable, I can't see Time Warner trying to outbid for the whole shebang either unless it falls into their lap. |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:24 am Post subject: |
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So you've already adjusted down last night's number, but compare it to the overnight from 1998 (18.8). You realize that went down as well right?
The Game 1 number should be 10.0-10.2. Best number number in 10 years and best in ABC era. And you're comparing it to the final year of Jordan to denigrate it?
Stop being a silly goose.
And there will be a 21% or more increase, because like I said when this started: the NBA is the second hottest sports TV property right now with a bright future.
Rian's silliness doesn't bother me because I love being right. He's still not over the TrailGangstas and is stuck in that era. He's not the only one.
Jagdip |
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Rian
Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1840
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| JAG wrote: | So you've already adjusted down last night's number, but compare it to the overnight from 1998 (18.8). You realize that went down as well right?
The Game 1 number should be 10.0-10.2. Best number number in 10 years and best in ABC era. And you're comparing it to the final year of Jordan to denigrate it?
Stop being a silly goose.
And there will be a 21% or more increase, because like I said when this started: the NBA is the second hottest sports TV property right now with a bright future.
Rian's silliness doesn't bother me because I love being right. He's still not over the TrailGangstas and is stuck in that era. He's not the only one.
Jagdip |
TrailGangstas? I guess I can say you're really a Queens and Maloof fan since you're a Sac-town boy? Ricky Berry or Bobby Hurley anyone?
As for comparing Jordan to today, how many more tv's are out there now? How many more fans, both in arenas and at home?
Silly goose indeed, you being right (that may have happened only once in your lifetime). |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12683
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| Rian wrote: | | And nope, the NBA doesn't get a 21% increase jdw. The 21% increase back in 2007 also gave Time Warner the rights to run NBATV...not exactly the same thing as just continuing on the same contract with nothing else changing. |
Nope. Both ESPN/ABC and Time Warner increased at a 21% clip. ESPN/ABC went from $400M to $485M per year.
And here's the key: things *are* changing:
2007: Ratings declining at a horrific rate (see Spurs)
2012: Ratings increasing with Disney & TW loving it
If you don't think Time Warner loves NBA, you must have missed the contract they signed with the Lakers.
John |
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JAG
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 1397
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| Rian wrote: | TrailGangstas? I guess I can say you're really a Queens and Maloof fan since you're a Sac-town boy? Ricky Berry or Bobby Hurley anyone?
As for comparing Jordan to today, how many more tv's are out there now? How many more fans, both in arenas and at home?
Silly goose indeed, you being right (that may have happened only once in your lifetime). |
Not about the city you're in. Just the negative attitude towards the NBA that has existed post-Jordan. The league is on fire, survived a lockout, and is thriving again, but guys like you will continually point to the Jordan peak and say nothing else is good enough.
Jordan built on massive numbers Magic and Bird brought in, as 4 of his 6 Finals had less viewers or were within 1M of the 24M+ Lakers-Celtics did in 1987. The two big ones were against Barkley in 1993 and the final one.
The '08 Lakers-Celtics Finals averaged 15M, by 2010 it was up to 18M. Now the 12th and 28th largest markets in the country are going to average close to that. Ignoring that growth is idiotic.
And if LeBron-Durant can string a few Finals against each other, the third one would do well over 20M viewers. Which is how Bird-Magic built the audience or Jordan did by getting there 6 of 8 years.
The 2000s were hurt by two main factors. Duncan not going to Boston or another major Eastern Conference team in the 1997 draft lottery (Stern should have fixed that one) and the Shaqobe Lakers breaking up halfway through their run. Imagine those '08 and '10 Finals with Shaq still around.
But you keep dwelling on the last decade, I certainly enjoyed it.
Jagdip |
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jdw
Site Admin
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 12683
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:55 am Post subject: |
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| Rian wrote: | | If Comcast wants to "overbid" for the NBA, ESPN/ABC isn't going to get into a bidding war, and with TNT/TBS on basic cable, I can't see Time Warner trying to outbid for the whole shebang either unless it falls into their lap. |
Time Warner isn't going to big for the whole thing. They're happy with their cut.
Disney just might get into a bidding war. Three properties are coming up that have high value:
* MLB
* NBA
* Big 10
Other than that, everything is well locked in for quite some time.
Disney doesn't want to overpay for MLB. They probably would be happy with a slice, which they have now splitting things with Fox and Time Warner. With digital rights likely to be included in this package for the first time, they also may feel an incentive to keep their feet in the water. On the other hand, it's probably *not* one they want to overpay for given their other inventory... and the thing they really would rather have coming down the pipeline after it: the NBA.
So that's the one to watch for overpayment. If Comcast overpays to get a big chunk of it for both NBC and NBC Sports, Disney and/or the others will glady back away from the table and save their money for something else. If either Disney or Time Warner reduce their involvement in MLB, you can be sure they'll move hard to retain the NBA.
In turn, if Comcast doesn't get a piece of MLB for their networks, they'll go all out to get the NBA and the Big 10 because they really are the only content out there of any value that will be available for quite some time (NFL isn't relevant since they just extended *and* the NFL is smart at letting everyone other than TW have a seat at the table, including Comcast).
Disney has gotten in bidding wars... for things more valuable than the NBA (such as the NFL) and less valuable than the NBA (basically every other sports property). There's a content war out there, with sports being one of the few things that delivers both loads of content and also viewers while so much else is declining. So of Disney's profits are tied up in sports that it's not even funny.
John |
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